Well, I might as well write something about those primaries.

According to CNN, Obama won North Carolina by about 14% of the popular vote (56%-42%), and won 45 delegates to Clinton’s 37 (+8). Clinton won Indiana by maybe 2% of the popular vote (51%-49%) and picked up 37 delegates to Obama’s 33 (+4). Looking at those numbers, it’s pretty clear to me that Obama should have won the nomination tonight.

Clinton’s score in Indiana hurts her cause more than it helps. She’s been claiming lately that she’s ahead in the popular vote (if you count Michigan and Florida), despite Obama’s pretty much insurmountable lead in delegates. Indiana was supposed to be a Clinton stronghold. If she can’t win a popular mandate in Indiana (and she couldn’t), her argument’s credibility drops like a homesick rock.

Meanwhile, Obama picks up another four delegates worth of lead, and wins the North Carolina popular vote with the kind of margin that the Clinton campaign has been saying they needed since Texas. His strong performance in Indiana ought to be the nail in Senator Clinton’s coffin. Ought.

What happens next is anyone’s guess. This isn’t the first time that Clinton has needed a big victory and come up short, but in the past few months she’s managed to pull out a draw every time she’s needed a win. Tonight’s results are clearly a (net) loss. If she’d won Indiana by a convincing margin, she could justify staying in the race. Winning by less than two per cent won’t cut it.

Still, I don’t think she’ll withdraw. Senator Clinton has staked far too much personal capital on winning the nomination to not go all the way.. I think she’ll stay in the race, and as her chances of winning continue to vanish I think she’ll sling more mud and lean more heavily upon identity politics and play more backroom games to accumulate more superdelegates. If she tries and fails, I expect she’ll have done enough damage to the Democratic base — and to Senator Obama’s image — to make the November election nail-bitingly close. If somehow Clinton wins the nomination, she’ll lose to McCain.

Of course, I could be wrong. The internet is all abuzz with rumours that Clinton has canceled her public appearances for tomorrow. Some claim that this signals victory for Obama — surely it’s a sign of capitulation, right? Others reply that it’s an indication that Clinton will stay in it — surely she doesn’t want to spend all of tomorrow explaining why she’s still in the race after this defeat. (How long would she have to wait to avoid those questions?)

The internet is also abuzz with rumours that Rush Limbaugh’s Republicans — voting in the Democratic primary as part of “Operation Chaos” — won Indiana for Clinton.

“Operation Chaos”? Limbaugh must’ve seen Fight Club lately. I suppose names like that seem clever when you’re doped up on Oxycodone.

With the Indiana results as close as they are, even the perception that Clinton won on the votes of monkeywrenching Republicans can only hurt her further.  Ain’t that a shame.