Archive for February, 2008



13
Feb
08

Senate endorses FISA telco immunity provision, 62-31

Thus:

To strike the provisions providing immunity from civil liability to electronic communication service providers for certain assistance provided to the Government.

Vote Counts: YEAs 31
NAYs 67
Not Voting 2

Of the Senate’s three remaining candidates for nomination, McCain voted ‘Nay’, Obama voted ‘Yea’, and Clinton was too busy campaigning to do her fucking job.

In other news, the Fourth Amendment to the United States Constitution staggered out into its back yard and shot itself.  (I thought this wasn’t supposed to happen after the Dems locked up the Senate in 2006?)

13
Feb
08

Obama, McCain sweep VA, MD, DC

Before I begin, I have in mind some commentary on yesterday’s article.  Earlier today and against my better judgement I watched a few minutes of CNN’s political coverage.  I was treated (if that’s the word) to CNN contributor and Democratic superdelegate Donna Brazile attempting to rebut the notion that superdelegates have too much power over the Democratic nomination.  From my perspective, she did a miserably poor job — rather than present any evidence that superdelegates wouldn’t abuse their power, she just asserted that popular votes for the Democratic nomination do count (despite appearances to the contrary).  You’ll pardon my skepticism.

On, then, to other things.

Obama beat Clinton in Virginia (64% to 35%), Maryland (61% to 35%), and DC (75% to 24%) — according to RealClearPolitics, at least.  McCain beat Huckabee in Virginia (50% to 41%), Maryland (55% to 30%), and DC (68% to 17%).

Virginia’s an interesting case.  First off, according to Ben Smith, Obama got more votes than all the Republican candidates combined.  (This led Justin Gardner to introduce me to the term “Obamacan”, apparently a portmanteau of “Obama” and “Republican”.)  Could Virginia go Democratic if Obama gets the nomination?  Virginia’s electoral college votes have been won by the Republicans as long as I’ve been alive; Obama may have a chance to change that.

Second, despite Obama’s appeal to Virginia’s independents, McCain gathered in enough of them to beat Huckabee, despite the latter scoring evangelical voters at a rate of three to one.  This lends some credibility to my notion from yesterday that independents who support Obama would flock to McCain if Clinton wins the nomination on superdelegates.  Heck, even if she doesn’t, her base in the nomination fight has always been “traditional” Democrats; McCain has a much better chance against her than he does against Obama (who has a habit of stealing his independent support — though New Hampshire makes a strong counterexample).

Once more, interesting times ahead.

12
Feb
08

Let’s have a new theme

In keeping with recent political trends, I think it’s time for a change; however, I don’t have to wait ’til November.

Pity that links hide so easily in this theme.  It may not last.

11
Feb
08

Deadlocked Democrats and the consequences thereof

Exactly how deadlocked is a matter of some debate:

(Hat tip: Donklephant)

Interesting, but not too surprising, to see superdelegates jumping ship to support Obama given the closeness of the race.  The difference between the two candidates is far less than the number of superdelegates, no matter whose numbers you use.  If this keeps up, superdelegates will decide the Democratic nomination — and that’s bad news for the Democrats.

McCain pretty much has a lock on the Republican nomination.  (Take that with a grain of salt; after Iowa, I thought Obama pretty much had a lock on New Hampshire.)  He’s a hawkish interventionist on the Team America: World Police model, but so is Clinton — and if you look at what Pelosi and Reid have done since 2006 you’d be forgiven for thinking that most Democrats are, too.  He has some centre-left credibility (viz. McCain-Feingold and his stance on immigration) and a reputation — at least in some circles — for willingness to “reach across the aisle”.  People see him as a moderate, at least compared to people like Giuliani and Huckabee.  Note that Obama has at least a little bit of the same thing going on the Democratic side of the fence.

He also, in some circles, has a reputation as an independent-minded maverick — especially since he’s most recently been compared to Romney.  As far as I can tell, that’s what got him his five hundred-some delegate lead: he’s a palatable, “safe” kind of maverick, unlike (say) Huckabee or Paul, who scare the bejeezus out of mainstream Republicans.  Note again that Obama has acquired the same kind of reputation — he’s a “change” candidate, particularly compared to Clinton and her two previous terms as President.  (Hey, if she wants to campaign on her experience, I get to make jokes about it.)

Now, suppose that Clinton receives the Democratic nomination by a small margin.  She’ll have a hard time persuading people that she wasn’t crowned by unelected superdelegates within the party establishment — she is, after all, the establishment candidate.  Everyone who voted for someone other than Clinton in the primaries and caucuses will feel cheated, their votes overruled by superdelegates appointed by the Democratic elite.

And here, on the other side of the fence, is McCain: a purportedly moderate, independent-seeming candidate with what appears to be an actual popular mandate (we won’t get into the actual math of the Republicans’ winner-take-all primaries; suffice to say that McCain doesn’t have as much of a mandate in actual votes cast as it appears).  The “R-” in front of his name will probably scare off most of the disaffected Democrats; some of those will hold their noses and vote for Clinton, but I imagine that more than a few will simply pout and sit out the election.

But the story so far has been “it’s the independents, stupid.  Independents gave Obama his early momentum by handing him Iowa and narrowing what seemed like an uncrossable gap between his polls and Clinton’s in the early races, convincing later voters that Obama’s actually electable.  (Exactly the opposite happened to Giuliani, and I’m still gloating about that.)  Those independents will find McCain much more palatable, and will probably give him the Presidency.

Let me repeat that: if Clinton wins the Democratic nomination on superdelegates alone, I expect her to lose to McCain in the general election.

I’m not convinced that a McCain presidency would be an unmitigated disaster, mind you.  I expect the Dems to gain full control of the Senate and increase their majority in the House.  That gives us a divided government — despite McCain’s rep for working with Democrats and Pelosi’s and Reid’s record of caving in to the lunatic demands of a Republican President — and the extra friction inherent in a divided government is a very good thing indeed.  For example:

Suppose we switch the scenario around.  If Obama wins the Democratic nomination on superdelegates alone, he can retain support from “his” independents.  He’ll lose support from some of the die-hard Clintonistas and the like — but they’re far more likely to simply sit at home than vote for McCain (even though Clinton’s policies are much closer to McCain’s than Obama’s are).  Would that cost him the election?  Hard to say.  He would, however, get into less trouble than Clinton.

10
Feb
08

TransLink board votes itself a raise

First they get a big whack of money from the government, then they close their dealings to public scrutiny; now they’ve sextupled their pay scale:

Behind closed doors and without issuing a press release, the TransLink board approved a wage scale that pays six times more than what the previous board was being paid to do similar work.

As a result, TransLink directors will be entitled to $1,200 per meeting.

[...]

News of the increases come after the B.C. Ministry of Transportation restructured the TransLink board last year, replacing elected directors with appointed ones.

Somehow, I’m not surprised.

08
Feb
08

Still more thoughts on motivation

(Previously here and here.)

I’m going to quote Milton Friedman, who’s much less of an asshole than I thought when I was a high-school vest-pocket Marxist:

There are four ways in which you can spend money. You can spend your own money on yourself. When you do that, why then you really watch out what you’re doing, and you try to get the most for your money. Then you can spend your own money on somebody else. For example, I buy a birthday present for someone. Well, then I’m not so careful about the content of the present, but I’m very careful about the cost. Then, I can spend somebody else’s money on myself. And if I spend somebody else’s money on myself, then I’m sure going to have a good lunch! Finally, I can spend somebody else’s money on somebody else. And if I spend somebody else’s money on somebody else, I’m not concerned about how much it is, and I’m not concerned about what I get. And that’s government. And that’s close to 40% of our national income.

This, friends and gentle neighbours, is what passes for charity in our modern mindset. Let me explain from my own perspective.

First off, relationships are vital to us, from a psychological and an evolutionary perspective. We hairless bipeds are, will-we nill-we, social creatures; we have evolved in an environment within which we depend upon our relations with others. (This is, for my money, the biggest flaw in much libertarian philosophy; we tend to forget that relationships are more important, from an evolutionary and/or natural-law perspective, than even Murray Rothbard cares to consider. Ah well.) Way back when, we’d die without the support of those closest to us — and somewhat further removed, without the support of the other members of our tribes. This may explain why enlightened self-interest is as common as, uh, common sense.

Consider, then, Dr. Friedman’s first way: spending your money upon yourself. This is a straight cost/benefit proposition. It’s an optimization problem. I want to get as much value (whether that means “improving my chances of survival” or “making myself as happy as possible” or what-the-foxtrot-ever) as I can for each buck I spend. This particular way concerns primarily myself — and if you get a little shiver of guilt here, go clear your head before you continue. We are all evolved organisms, evolved to pass on our genes in the strongest form possible, and without looking out at least a little for ourselves we can neither pass on the collective effort of all of our ancestors nor help others do so. Here’s my point: unless you’re buying shit to improve your social status, this is a bounded and self-contained problem. It’s nothing but utility. What’s the motivation? Commerce. We make a mutually agreeable transaction, and we both come out ahead.

Consider next Dr. Friedman’s second way: spending your money upon someone else. Now we have a more interesting transaction! Suppose I want to buy you a computer. I might consider a PC with Ubuntu Linux to be the best practical solution to your computing needs, but I can’t just go ahead and do that — I have to consider what you want in order to maintain (or improve) our relationship. Maybe I’ll spend a bit more money on you than I will on me — there’s more at stake than the utility of the purchase; I’m affecting our relationship. When I spend my money on you, I’m making two transactions: one between me and the seller, and one between me and you. Now three people benefit: you get something you want, the seller gets money s/h/it wanted more than s/h/its product, and I get a better relationship with you.

This is proper charity, by the way: it’s a mutually beneficial transaction between the donor and the beneficiaries. I give to your cause: you get my resources, and I get your goodwill.

We’ve now exhausted the necessarily moral exchanges from Dr. Friedman’s example. Let’s move on and suggest, for the moment, that there’s no real relationship between me (the guy with the money) and you (the guy whose money I’m spending).

So. I’m spending your money upon myself. I still have an interest here: my own. I can spend as much as I want, or at least as much as you’ve given me; there’s no reason for me to economize. As Dr. Friedman says, I’ll buy myself the best lunch I can find.

Incidentally, while ordering lunch on someone else’s tab, I find myself in reality spending less than I would if I was spending my own money. The key here is that I’m not spending someone else’s money; rather, I’m determining how someone else should spend s/h/its money on my behalf. I don’t have the money to spend for my own purposes; I’m essentially asking someone else to give me money for my own lunch.

In this case, I have no reason to minimize cost: I already have your money; all I need to do is spend it how I wish. I still have an interest in this matter: I’m the one eating this lunch, so I damn well want the best lunch I can find for your money. I’m still going to spend all of your money, but I’ll be eating well.

This is not necessarily the case in Dr. Friedman’s final case: me spending your money upon an indeterminate third party. The incisive reader will have guessed that this is what modern charity has become: spending tax dollars on… well, whatever. Those who spend the money have no incentive whatsoever to see that it’s well-spent, and those who receive it have no incentive whatsoever to see that it’s well-invested. It’s really no-one’s problem, except that of the brokers in between: if I’m handling a government contract, from people about whom I give no shits and for people about whom I give no shits, I simply don’t give a shit about how I spend the money.

Witness thus the spectacular failure of government-sponsored subsidized housing projects (for example). No-one on either side of the equation gives a good goddamn about what happens to what ought to be well-built and well-maintained housing. The government has nothing invested: it’s just taxes; they get taxes every fucking year, there’s more where that came from. The tenants, by selection, have nothing invested: if they could invest in their housing, they’d have rented from private landlords. The only people who benefit are the sanctimonious demagogues who peddle their agendas into improved relationships with the rest of our extended tribe (see above).

08
Feb
08

Romney’s out

And I don’t mean he’s gay:

He purports to have done so to avoid “making it easier for Senator Clinton or Obama to win.”   Isn’t that sweet.  At least he has the bare modicum of class to refer to Clinton by her last name.

Barry Eisler has some gratifyingly viciously incisive commentary on Romney’s not-quite-farewell speech.  In his words:

Read the speech in its entirety. You’ll find it singularly bereft of the notion of individual responsibility except as a slogan used to blame others for their lack of it. Memo to the Republican party: the first step in fixing a problem is acknowledging you have one.

Despite the speech’s tremendous unintentional irony, Romney leaves the race less an ironic figure than a tragic one. Here’s a guy with intelligence (albeit often well-concealed in his speeches); executive experience in politics and business; and (again, despite some of his ridiculous speechifying asides) demonstrated economic fluency, who lacked the confidence to run on any of it, preferring instead plasticity and pandering, right to the bitter end. He reminds me of no one so much as Hillary Clinton, another otherwise capable candidate whose lack of confidence in her own strengths has led to a sad pattern of pandering followed by attacks on her opponent, whose substantive record by its very existence calls hers into question. Romney and Hillary… even in Romney’s tragedy, there is irony.

Romney somehow manages to be more despicable than McCain and more electable than Huckabee.  I’m delighted to see him out of this race.

08
Feb
08

Those reckless overspending youngsters

Yep, that’s us.

Of course, the bright lights at CBC left off a crucial piece of information from that headline.  Here’s the first paragraph:

More than half of Canadians under 50 spend their disposable incomes without thinking about their financial futures, suggests a study released Thursday.

Yeah, we’re horribly financially irresponsible.  This has nothing whatsoever to do with the fact that central bank support of fractional-reserve lending is pushing real inflation up to 10% per year (the Canadian government claims that inflation is closer to 2.4%, but their index is skewed by design to the most stable commodities; by contrast, my grocery bills have inflated by over 10% and my utilities aren’t far behind).  It similarly has nothing to do with the fact that as the Boomers retire and suffer the illnesses and indignities of old age our CPP contributions are vanishing into the black hole created by the generation that gave us Mutually Assured Destruction and the War On Drugs when they decided that peace and pot were no longer “groovy” (somewhere around 1971, if you’re keeping score from home).  Nope; it’s our fault for being so goddamn prodigal as to spend our money while we still have it and it’s still worth something.

Oh, but here’s damning evidence:

Thirty-seven per cent of Canadians said they are not planning financially for the future. Forty per cent under 50, and 21 per cent over 50, said they focus on spending today rather than making a budget.

Sunghwan said he was surprised by the findings, especially “the great divide between under 50 versus over 50 people.”

[...]

The findings suggest younger and middle-aged people “tend to basically spend money without thinking about their financial future,” Sunghwan told CBCNews.ca, adding they “don’t seem to appreciate the fact that the retirement age is quickly approaching and this realization often comes as they reach the age of 50, but it’s way too late.

“We need to really encourage younger Canadians to start saving money and to develop a healthy habit of saving and investing as early as possible.”

Sure.  Saving and investing.  I can “invest” money in a “high-interest” savings account at my bank and earn 3.5% per annum.  I can go someplace more specialized and get maybe 5%.  Now, if real what-I-need-to-live inflation runs 8% or worse, how the blue-veined pulsing motherfuck is “saving and investing” a good idea?  I’d be better off investing in a chest freezer, a diesel generator to run it during power failures, and four hundred pounds of meat.

That said, I can’t say I’m surprised that the Boomers are trying to pin the responsibility for their financial upgefuckery upon the purportedly profligate behaviour of their children.  They’ve already sent us off to kill and die for their twisted vision of world peace; compared to that, what’s a little financial sophistry?




anarchocapitalist agitprop

Be advised

I say fuck a lot
Grammar Nazi

Categories

Archives

Statistics FTW